January 12, 2012

How the Denver Broncos can succeed long-term with Tim Tebow

How will Tebow keep winning long-term?
Hint: JD Walton plays an important role.
Over 2000 years after His arrival on earth, there is still a debate about whether Jesus Christ is the Jewish Messiah foretold in the Old Testament.

It seems the disputation of whether Tim Tebow is the savior of Denver's Super Bowl hopes might last nearly as long.

The arguments have been hashed and rehashed to the point of white noise; it's the classic he's a winner, bro vs. he doesn't make mid-range throws any respectable QB should be able to complete. Nearly every time the man exits the postgame podium, talk-radio fires are stoked once more.

So, to avoid redundancy about whether the Broncos should keep Tim Tebow long-term, let's just talk about what they need to do if they decide to ride the Tebow Train to Super Bowl glory or utter oblivion.

If John Elway & Co. ™ do indeed buy into Tebow for the foreseeable future, they must buy in all the way. No more straddling the fence with cryptic interview answers about Tebow's future. If he's the guy, start acting like it. This starts and ends with personnel. Elway and GM Brian Xanders must look for offensive personnel that fit neatly into Mike McCoy's Tebow-ized zone-read and zone-option scheme. Finding great fits requires thinking outside the box. For example, a happy accident for this offense is Demaryius Thomas.

Thomas was Josh McDaniels' first pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. At the time, he was just the safer option over Dez Bryant, who had character questions coming into the draft. A few questions were raised about drafting a receiver who played in the triple option at Georgia Tech. However, Thomas ended up being a perfect match for McCoy's new offense because of his time at Georgia Tech.

Demaryius Thomas was a triple option wide receiver, which makes him perfect for Denver.

Receivers in Paul Johnson's triple option spend the entire game stalk blocking corners and safeties, and then they go deep for a couple touchdowns per game. Coaches recruit receivers to triple option schools by saying, "you might only catch 2 balls a game, but it will be for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns because you'll be that open." Thomas' stat line from last week's Wild Card win over Pittsburgh? 4 catches for 204 yards and a touchdown. He gets his chance on deep play-action passes, and he does not disappoint.

The most important offensive personnel to find, though? More guys like Zane Beadles and JD Walton. McDaniels' second and third round picks from the 2010 Draft (McDaniels is looking pretty smart now, right?), they were solid offensive linemen who didn't require first-round money to obtain. If Denver scouts can identify more linemen that would be comfortable in this offensive system, those same linemen will likely be undervalued by other teams because they don't fit as well in a pro-style scheme.

Tim Tebow would be the first to admit his success is impossible without the young Denver o-line.
Tebow is admittedly a master at running the zone-read option. He faked the handoff to Willis McGahee so well last Sunday that it took Steelers LB James Harrison ridiculously long to realize Tebow still had the ball. (If WR Matt Willis had stayed on his block, that play would have been a touchdown.) However, the scheme would blow up in Tebow's face every play were it not for the superb blocking of Denver's offensive line. The organization has a long-held tradition of great offensive line play by undervalued players, and McCoy's offense offers an amazing possibility to keep this tradition going. The Broncos do need to develop run blocking from their tight ends, who currently struggle with staying on their blocks.

The last step? Continue developing the defensive backfield. Denver has a pass-rushing duo in Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller that will terrorize opposing offensive lines for years to come, but when the rush doesn't come immediately the Broncos' safeties are picked apart. This is in part because rookies Quinton Carter and Rahim Moore are experiencing an oft-unpleasant trial by fire. Both show flashes of brilliance followed by frustrating mental mistakes. Denver must develop these young players, and draft young talent to develop underneath Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman (both age 33), who have been stellar but will eventually retire.

In short, success is absolutely possible with Tebow. Denver has defied all odds and can continue to do so, but they must commit fully one way or the other. Embrace McCoy's collegiate scheme and develop the personnel to run it, or scrap everything and go back to a pro-style offense. Either choice is understandable, but the Broncos will drown if they refuse to commit one way or the other. It is an incredible risk to bank on Tebow's success, as it puts the careers of nearly everyone associated with the program in jeopardy if he fails. Having said that, if I had to bet my career on one player, it would undoubtedly be Tebow.