Chalk Talk: Understanding the National Championship in one play

On Monday, I talked about how offensive line play would determine the outcome of the National Championship Game. It was a showdown of the nation's top two defenses, certainly; but victory would go to the team whose offensive line made a dent in the opposing defense.

Down 15-0 in the desperate half of the fourth quarter, LSU started throwing haymakers. Facing a long fourth down, it was do-or-die time for the Tigers' offensive line, and they apparently decided to die.

Video used in making these images is courtesy of ESPN.

Jordan Jefferson just threw hot off an extra blitzer on the previous play and missed his receiver, so now the Tigers are calling a more conservative protection. They have six players to block six potential rushers. First, let's talk about the left side.

Because the running back has been placed on the left side, that will be the "man" side, meaning that the left guard and left tackle are manned up on the first and second pass rushers, respectively. The running back's job is to take the circled backer if he blitzes, or help the guard and tackle with their protection if the backer doesn't blitz. Sometimes the play will be called so the running back releases in a checkdown route if there is no extra blitzer.

On the right side, LSU also has three blockers for three potential rushers: the defensive tackle, the defensive end (who is actually a linebacker in a 3-point stance) and the defender with a diamond on him. The diamond player looks like he will be covering the slot receiver, so he's not a high-priority rusher on the right side. The center, right guard and right tackle will all slide right to accommodate any twists or blitzes meant to confuse them, and each blocker will take the gap to his immediate right. Whoever shows as a rusher in that player's gap is his responsibility.

Here's the very first step of the protection. Jefferson hasn't even started his drop in earnest, and most of the defenders have already begun to show where they're going. The left tackle is kicking wide to accommodate the d-end's hard outside rush. The running back is stepping up for the b-gap blitzer. The left guard is short-setting his d-tackle so as not to give up an inside rush lane. Dont'a Hightower has taken his first step hard and outside, so the right tackle is bailing outside hard with his first kick step. The potential right-side blitzer looks like he'll be sitting in coverage, so the o-linemen aren't really worried about him.

The trouble here is the defensive tackle on the right side. He hasn't really shown one gap or the other, so the guard isn't quite sure whether he should pass the rusher off to the center and go help his right tackle. The d-lineman is also Alabama's backup noseguard; for the last few plays he's been spinning and trying all sorts of crazy stuff since he just got put in the National Championship Game. The center and guard absolutely hate him because they've been playing hard the entire game only to receive a fresh rusher who is going nuts trying to get to Jefferson. Just a couple plays ago, the center pancaked the youngster and wouldn't let him up; that's when things usually start getting chippy.

The right guard's thirst for blood really hurts the Tigers here. He's so eager to beat up on this young defensive tackle that he doesn't maintain his gap protection as well as he should.

Here we are a mere split-second later. The left guard an tackle are still doing a great job staying on their blocks. The running back is preparing to take on his blitzing backer. However, all is not well on the right side. The right guard has committed fully to the defensive tackle, and Hightower finds the resulting hole in protection quite appetizing.

Everyone on the left side is still doing their job, but the right side is in DEFCON-1. The right tackle over-set his feet because he knew he had help to the inside, and he had to respect Hightower's outside rush speed. Now he's realizing his only help will come from the center, and the help won't make it in time. Jefferson has the bubble open, but it's well-covered and won't get enough yards for the first. He's looking for something deep to come open, but there isn't nearly enough time.

And, it's gone. LSU's best chance of scoring the entire game, that is. 

I can't stress how often this type of mistake happens, especially on a big stage. Offensive linemen love contact, because it's the only thing that makes playing offensive line any fun. With such a long period of time before the game, players start getting antsy; when their chance finally arrives, they can forget their assignments because they just want to hit someone. Say what you want about Nick Saban's dictatorial coaching style, but he showed up with the more disciplined team Monday night.

Understanding The Rose Bowl's Final Seconds

Down a touchdown with 16 seconds remaining in the 98th annual Rose Bowl, Russell Wilson attempted his best "Tebow Time" impression. Much like Tebow himself recently, Wilson came up short.

Despite carving up Oregon's prevent defense, Wisconsin attempted to spike the ball after a long first down pass left only 2 seconds on the clock. An official review confirmed that no time remained after the spike, thereby adding a sour end to the highest scoring Rose Bowl ever.

Above: Russell Wilson wasn't too happy with the ruling. Photo courtesy of ESPN.

Criticism abounded after the game's finish; not of the official's ruling, but of Wisconsin Head Coach Bret Bielema's clock management. Granted, there would've been an extra timeout had Bielema not challenged the Oregon kick returner who nearly came out of the end zone before taking a knee. However, in this situation the correct coaching call was made because it takes the offensive line's challenges into account.

First, one should understand how difficult it is to spike the ball with such little time remaining. The center is hovering over the ball, usually with a particularly curmudgeonly referee standing over him and refusing to let the center even touch the ball before the whistle. Upon the whistle, the center must wait for the quarterback's quick cadence, which loses even more time. He must then snap the ball, which becomes significantly more difficult when trying to do it as quickly as possible; if the ball is improperly snapped, Wilson will fumble it and then be unable to spike before the clock has run out. Most postgame critics failed to understand how difficult the last-second spike is. Having done it myself, I prefer to cut Wisconsin some slack.

Another one of the chief postgame sentiments that flooded forums and Facebook was that Wisconsin should have simply run another play. Many critics believe Wilson should have made an "echo" call to run the same play again, with the belief that even redundant playcalling would be a better option than attempting to spike the ball.

Unfortunately, running a no-huddle offense isn't as easy as the folks over at EA Sports might lead you to believe. Offensive lines don't automatically call protections; it actually takes time to do so. Without a properly called protection, Wilson wouldn't have had any time to find the open man in Oregon's prevent defense. With 7 or 8 defenders potentially dropping into coverage, the offensive line needs more than one second to get on the same page, because extra time will be necessary.

Spiking the ball is the necessary choice because it gives Wisconsin time to call a route combo and protection that would create the best chance to permeate the legion of Ducks guarding the endzone. Although Wilson didn't get the spike done in time, it still had a higher chance of success on the resulting play than heaving the ball blindly without calling another play.

Blind Side Blog's 2011 Bowl Picks, Part 2

The first few games of this year's bowl season were marked with some impressive showings (Boise State) and some last-second Cinderellas (Louisiana-Lafayette). More great matchups are on the way, with plenty of battles between excellent offensive and defensive line units. Here's the second half of BSB's bowl picks. The projected winner is in bold: 

Meineke Car Care Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6)

• Kevin Sumlin bolted from Houston to take the more prestigious post at SEC-bound A&M; unfortunately for the Aggies, Sumlin won't be able to help them against a streaky Northwestern team that has won four of their last 5 games. Ryan Tannehill has had an exceptional season at quarterback for TAMU, but it won't be enough to overcome the effects of a soul-crushing last-second loss to archrival Texas at the end of the season.

Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) vs. Utah Utes (7-5)

• Paul Johnson's triple option has been incredibly successful this year with over 316 rushing yards per game and nearly 35 points per game. Look for Tevin Washington to have a great day against Utah, who threw away a chance at the Pac-12 championship by losing their last game to Colorado.

Fight Hunger Bowl: Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) vs. UCLA Bruins (6-7)

• I proclaimed the Fight Hunger Bowl to be this year's "Turd Bowl" on Twitter. First, look at UCLA. In addition to firing Rick Neuheisel, the Bruins filed paperwork with the NCAA to make sure they could play in a bowl before the Pac-12 championship game, essentially anticipating a shellacking from Oregon. Illinois' Ron Zook, on the other hand, was fired after his team complimented a 6-0 start with a 0-6 finish. My choice is UCLA, because at least they have won a game since October 8th.

Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6)

• This could end up being a battle of excellent backs. Cincinnati boasts an electric running back with nearly 1500 total yards in Isaiah Pead, whereas Vandy's Zac Stacy has covered a similar amount of yardage en route to the Liberty Bowl. The Bearcats are still a sub-BCS team without Brian Kelly, whereas Commodores coach James Franklin's contract was torn up and rewritten after he tripled the team's victory count in each of the last two seasons. Vanderbilt is my choice here.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia Cavaliers (8-4) vs. Auburn Tigers (7-5)

• This was somewhat of a down year for Auburn after losing Cam Newton, but a 4-4 conference record is always impressive in the SEC. The Tigers had a very turbulent season, which included eight straight weeks of alternating wins and losses. Virginia posted a stronger home stretch barring a final week 38-0 loss at the hands of Virginia Tech. Although they aren't the best team in the Commonwealth, the Cavaliers still allow seven points less than Auburn per game, on average; defense will make the difference here.

TicketCity Bowl: No. 20 Houston Cougars vs. No. 24 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3)

• TicketCity was the first bowl willing to take the heat in choosing Penn State, but the only heat source in this game is Case Keenum's arm. Despite losing Kevin Sumlin, the Cougars are still 1st in the country for both scoring and passing offense. Penn State still has a long road to full recovery as a program and as a university, which will show against Houston.

Gator Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6) vs. Florida Gators (6-6)

• I prefer to call this the "Let's see how many times the broadcasters say Urban Meyer/Tim Tebow in one game" Bowl. Has a nice ring to it, right? All kidding aside, this appears to be an intriguing matchup between 2 recent powerhouses attempting to regain their footing. Florida has lost six of their last eight games after a promising 4-0 start in Will Muschamp's inaugural season, whereas Braxton Miller has rendered Ohio State's quarterback woes without Terrell Pryor short-lived. In my experience, coaching with a demeanor such as Muschamp's can wear on players, especially late in the season. I see Ohio State winning their last pre-Urban Meyer game.

Outback Bowl: No. 12 Michigan State Spartans (10-3) vs. No. 18 Georgia Bulldogs (10-3)

• This year, the Outback Bowl might have the best non-BCS matchup. Michigan State and Georgia have the exact same conference and overall records, as well as two of the top defenses in the nation (9th and 17th, respectively). It's difficult to decide whether an end-of-season close loss to a good team (Michigan State's 42-39 loss to Wisconsin) or a huge loss to a great team (Georgia's 42-10 loss to LSU) affects a team more. Ultimately, I've decided to go with Georgia here because to me, playing in the SEC is the ultimate tiebreaker in big games such as this one.

Capital One Bowl: No. 21 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) vs. No. 10 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2)

• This is a game I have circled on my calendar, as it's a very even matchup. The Gamecocks had a very impressive season with a close loss to Auburn and a 2-score loss to an explosive Arkansas team; their 10-2 effort earned Steve Spurrier a contract extension through 2015. The Huskers' inaugural Big 10 season was a success aside from spankings at the hands of Wisconsin and Michigan, but they have been using some innovative rushing schemes with Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead which should challenge South Carolina's stingy defense. I give this one to the Huskers because Bo Pelini is dangerous when he has time to prepare.

Rose Bowl: No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) vs. No. 6 Oregon Ducks (11-2)

• This game features two of the top five overall offenses, and both have a great running game. I've always been a huge believer in Chip Kelly's offense, and I think Oregon will be back in the national championship soon. However, Russell Wilson adds another dimension to the Montee Ball show for Wisconsin. The Badgers also have a significantly better defense than Oregon, and they have time to condition for the Duck's rapid-fire playcalling. 

Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Stanford Cardinal (11-1) vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1)

• This is by far the most exciting game on the schedule with two future NFL quarterbacks leading two of the nation's best offenses. It's also the toughest game to pick. In the end, although Andrew Luck is "pretty much perfect" according to Lane Kiffin, the Weeden-Blackmon combination should put Oklahoma State over the top.

Sugar Bowl: No. 13 Michigan Wolverines (10-2) vs. No. 17 Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2)

• There's a ton of uproar about this game, and I agree with the common sentiment that these teams don't deserve a BCS bowl. That being said, it's still a matchup worth watching. Two top-10 defenses are featured here, as well as one of the most exciting players to watch in Denard Robinson. Tech was demolished twice by Clemson this season, but the Hokies had an exceptional season otherwise and is looking to use this platform to cleanse the taste of Tiger droppings from their mouths. Although I'm impressed with Michigan's running game this season, Beamer ball will win out in the end.

Discover Orange Bowl: No. 23 West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) vs. No. 14 Clemson Tigers (10-3)

• Geno Smith has had a prolific year quarterbacking the Mountaineers, passing for nearly 4,000 yards and completing 65% of his passes. Clemson has an equally talented QB in Tajh Boyd, but the Tigers suffered a late-season collapse, losing three of their last five games. Overall, though, Clemson beat four of the five top-25 opponents they played this season whereas West Virginia only beat one. Clemson is the more talented team, and they have a bright future.

Cotton Bowl: No. 11 Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) vs. No. 7 Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2)

• Arkansas had an amazing post-Mallett season, with their only losses coming to the two teams who happen to be playing in the national championship. Kansas State isn't such a great team on paper. They have one of the worst passing offenses in the entire country (a paltry 149.8 yards per game). Most of their wins were by one score or less. But they also have the most underrated college football player in Collin Klein. The Wildcats have played underdog before, and they have much more to play for than the Razorbacks.

BBVA Compass Bowl: Southern Methodist Mustangs (7-5) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6)

• I simply cannot pick Pittsburgh here. They have a great on-field leader in Tino Sunseri, but the team has struggled since running back Ray Graham was injured. Above all, I cannot pick Pitt because of Todd Graham. The man texted his players to let them know he was bolting for Arizona State. I've been in a program where the head coach resigned, and there is a right way to do it. Sending out a mass text is not the right way. The Panthers have since hired Paul Chryst, but Chryst won't have enough time to properly install his schemes; the players also have to get over their extreme bitterness thanks to Graham.

GoDaddy.Com Bowl: Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3)

• Both teams have been on impressive hot streaks; NIU has won eight straight and Arkansas St. has won nine straight. The Huskies most notably came back from a 20-point halftime deficit to win the MAC championship. They also boast a talented dual-threat quarterback in Chandler Harnish, who passed for nearly 3,000 yards and ran for over 1,000. I picked against the Sun Belt already and it didn't work out too well, but I think Northern Illinois plays as a team better than the Red Wolves.

BCS Championship: No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) vs. No. 1 LSU Tigers (13-0)

• As a former offensive lineman, I like watching shootouts. If their regular-season matchup is any indication, this game will be incredibly boring. I became convinced of LSU's #1 status after they smoked Arkansas and Georgia at the end of the season. LSU will come out ahead, hopefully by scoring more than 9 points.

Understanding Illegal Stemming

In last night's New Orleans Bowl, Louisiana-Lafayette lined up for a potential 55-yard game-winning field goal with seconds left. It would be a career long for Brett Baer if he made it, but the field goal unit had been struggling all night long. Unable to convert on an earlier field goal and even an extra point, the Ragin' Cajuns seemed doomed.

Until a ref threw a flag for "Illegal Stemming," that is.

The UL-L field goal unit had earlier been called for a false start, but this time the penalty was on a San Diego State defensive lineman. As a former offensive lineman, I was amazed that the refs actually made the right call here; due to the internet's swarming with questions about the penalty this morning, I thought I would clarify.

"Stemming" is a commonly used term for offensive and defensive linemen to describe a d-lineman's pre-snap movement. Many defenses will attempt to disguise their front in order to confuse offensive linemen so that a defender comes through unblocked. 4-3 defenses are the most apt to do this, as they can't bring pressure from as many places as a 3-4; therefore, they need to create confusion in another way.

Let's say for example we have a base 4-3 with a strong-side 5-technique (on the tackle's outside shoulder) and 3-technique (guard's outside shoulder), and a weak 1-technique (center's backside shoulder) and 5-technique (tackle's backside shoulder). If the offense has an inside zone run called, the quarterback might initially see this front and audible to the other side, because the 1-tech and 5-tech have more space between them for a running lane.

After his audible, the quarterback begins his cadence. At the last second, the 3-tech and 1-tech stem; the strong 3 comes down to a strong 1, and the weak 1 moves to a weak 3. The defensive front has now baited the offense into running away from the formation's strong side. It's a small victory, but small games like this on the offensive and defensive line are often crucial to the game's outcome. Stemming is completely different from stunting, but we'll save that topic for another time.

Stemming is a perfectly legal part of football because the defensive linemen are moving sideways before the snap. "Illegal Stemming," however, is when a defensive lineman moves with the express purpose of causing the offensive lineman to false start. That's exactly what the Aztec d-lineman was doing before Baer's 55-yard attempt; rather than trying to get into a different position, he kept flinching like he saw the ball being snapped. This caused the right tackle to flinch, but San Diego State got hit with the 5-yard move. Then this happened:

I'm still amazed that the referee called illegal stemming, because as 99% of the time the offensive lineman gets called for that even though it's the defense's fault. Plenty of coaches might say that the lineman should have been able to hold his water with the defense flinching like that even if it meant coming off the ball a hair slower; however, with a game-winning kick on the line after having a kick blocked earlier, every fraction of a second counts.

This is a penalty that has been called much more often in the last two years, and I'm glad that's the case. For too long offensive linemen have had the burden of remaining perfectly still while defensive linemen have a bag full of tricks to lure them into false starting. I'm glad the kick got moved forward here, and I'm glad Baer made it (even though I picked SDSU). Why, you ask?

A victory for one offensive lineman is a victory for all.

Blind Side Blog's 2011 Bowl Picks, Part 1

Once a year, the stars align to produce the most glorious combination of events. Final exams at my college conclude, and bowl season begins in earnest. Although BCS hatred is now at reverse Bieber-fever levels, to me there's nothing more exciting than watching two mediocre teams square off in front of a quarter-capacity crowd in Albuquerque. Sarcasm aside, I really do enjoy bowl season, as it gives me a chance to watch teams I otherwise don't get to see much. And to celebrate the most wonderful time of the year, I attempt clairvoyance. Picks are in bold. Enjoy:

New Mexico Bowl: Temple Owls (8-4) vs.Wyoming Cowboys (8-4)

• The Cowboys boast an impressive strength of schedule, with losses only coming to (then #9) Nebraska, Utah State, #16 TCU, and (then #7) Boise State. However, Temple's rushing attack ranks #7 in the nation with 256.7 yards per game on the ground. The Owls are also third in the nation in scoring defense with a stingy 13.8 points per game allowed. If defense wins championships, it can certainly win you the New Mexico Bowl.

Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio Bobcats (9-4) vs. Utah State Aggies (7-5)

• After a rocky 2-5 start, Utah State has finished impressively strong. Robert Turbin has led a ground game that ranks sixth in the nation, as the Aggies have compiled 277.5 rushing yards per game. What I like most about this team is Head Coach Gary Andersen, who has his players on board after making good on his promise that he would get a Utah State tattoo if the Aggies made it to a bowl this season.

New Orleans Bowl: San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (8-4)

• San Diego State is looking towards a bright future in the Big East, whereas Louisiana-Lafayette's season ended on a sour two-loss note as they remain stuck in the Sun Belt. San Diego State notched their first postseason win since 1969 last year, beating Navy in the Poinsetta Bowl. On the other hand, this is LA-Lafayette's first FBS postseason game.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl: Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4) vs.Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6)

• In picking this bowl, I first had to get over the fact that it has one of the most ridiculous names of all time. After that, I didn't decide who was more impressive so much as which team was less unimpressive. In this case, Florida International is the better choice. They have a pretty solid defense (16th in the nation), which should make Marshall Freshman QB Rakeem Cato's day relatively miserable.

Poinsettia Bowl: No. 16 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (10-2) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4)

• La. Tech finished out their season well by beating some relatively solid WAC teams, but TCU is still (to a somewhat lesser extent) the TCU powerhouse from days of yore. The question is how the Horned Frogs will respond to being placed in a lower bowl after winning the Rose Bowl last year. Without their overtime loss to SMU early in the season, they end up with a significantly higher ranking. Regardless, Coach Gary Patterson should be able to cajole his team into beating a lesser La. Tech squad.

MAACO Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) vs. No. 8 Boise State Broncos (11-1)

• This one isn't very fair. Arizona State is in between coaches, so the only conceivable motivation for most of the underclassman players is to play well so that Todd Graham will have them as a starter at the beginning of spring ball. Boise State might struggle with motivation heading into such a meaningless game, considering that they could have been in the national championship this year were it not for another spectacular kicking failure. That being said, the Broncos are #8 in the nation for a reason, and that reason has passed for over 3500 yards this year. Kellen Moore and co. should have no problem dispatching Arizona State.

Hawaii Bowl: Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) vs. No. 22 Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-2)

• I'm a huge fan of Nevada's pistol offense (I played for 2 years on a team that ran it), but I'm an even bigger fan of the way Southern Miss dismantled Houston in the C-USA championship game. Nevada is not the same without Colin Kaepernick, whereas Southern Miss has an excellent quarterback in Austin Davis. And although Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora is leaving for North Carolina, the Golden Eagles still have plenty of talent to win this game.

Independence Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) vs. Missouri Tigers (7-5)

• North Carolina struggled through a turbulent season embroiled with NCAA investigations and the firing of Butch Davis. Everett Withers has done an admirable job as the interim coach, but his temporary Tar Heels will have an uphill battle against the SEC-bound Tigers.

Little Caesars Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (6-6)

• I decided to go with Western Michigan here because of Alex Carder's impressive season at quarterback. He passed for just under 3500 yards, leading a team scoring effort that finished the season ranked 18th in the country. This offense looks like too much for Purdue to handle, as the Boilermakers have suffered several humiliating blowouts this season.

Belk Bowl: Louisville Cardinals (7-5) vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-5)

• Louisville overcame a brutal 2-4 start to become bowl-eligible and clinch a share of the Big East Title, which resulted in a contract extension for coach Charlie Strong. I like to see program stability when picking bowls, because it indicates a positive atmosphere where players feel like they are building something special. Although I was impressed with N.C. State's thrashing of Clemson in November, I think Louisville has more to win here.

Military Bowl: Toledo Rockets (8-4) vs. Air Force Falcons (7-5)

• Although Toledo has lived up to its nickname with a rocket-like 42.3 points scored per game, their potent offense will be forced to sit on the bench more than they would like. Air Force has become downright clinical at the triple option, which is designed to eat clock and yards to combat teams with Toledo's firepower. Air Force is second in the country in rushing yards with an astounding 320.3 yards per game, and it's mostly dues to Tim Jefferson Jr.'s ability to run the offense. Look for the Falcons to keep Toledo's explosive receiver Eric Page on the sideline while wearing down the Rockets' defense.

Holiday Bowl: California Golden Bears (7-5) vs. Texas Longhorns (7-5)

• This game might be the most even matchup of all the non-BCS bowls, and as a result I'm going with Texas simply because of the Mack Brown factor. The man has coached in 18 bowl games in his career and won the majority of them, so he should be able to pull out yet another Holiday Bowl win in what has been a down year for the Longhorns.

Champs Sports Bowl: No. 25 Florida State Seminoles (8-4) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4)

• Notre Dame won an impressive eight games in Brian Kelly's second season, but the team is unsure of its future quarterback situation after benching Tommy Rees in an end-of-season 28-14 loss to Stanford. Rees will start against a Florida State team that failed to live up to high-ranking hype at the season's start. Overall, Florida State edges out in my mind because playing in Orlando is essentially home-court advantage for the 'Noles.

Alamo Bowl: Washington Huskies (7-5) vs. No. 15 Baylor Bears (9-3)

• RGIII and the Bears essentially play on home turf against a Huskies team whose fan base doesn't travel too well. 'Nuff said.

Armed Forces Bowl: Brigham Young Cougars (9-3) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4)

• Although I'm somewhat disappointed that no service academies are playing in the Armed Forces Bowl, the matchup is still intriguing. BYU comes off a predictably solid season, losing only to Texas, Utah, and TCU with no statistical superstars. Tulsa is my choice, though; I was very impressed with G.J. Kinne and his Golden Hurricane teammates' strong early showing against Houston. Tulsa was down only three points at halftime to the Cougars before Case Keenum's offense went off for 35 second-half points. Tulsa appears to be on the rise, which I consider an advantage in lower-level bowls.

Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4)

• If I've learned anything the last three years going to school in Iowa, I've learned that when the Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes it will be a good year. Iowa State's season was nothing less than a dogfight, but they also ended up going David on Oklahoma State; they also played Oklahoma and Kansas State quite close. Rutgers has a good defense and a venue advantage playing in New York, but after what I've seen this year from the 'Clones I just cannot pick against them.

Music City Bowl: Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6)

• After Wake Forest started the season 4-2, they seemed to be a possible darkhorse for the ACC Champions. Until they went 2-4 in the last six games, that is. Mississippi State only won two SEC games this year, but it's still the SEC. They also played most of their losses close, boasting the 19th-ranked defense in the nation. This matchup is somewhat of a push, and strength of conference tips the scale in the Bulldogs' favor.

Insight Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) vs.No. 19 Oklahoma Sooners (9-3)

• The Insight Bowl was notable this year as one of the bowls to publicly pass on Penn State, instead opting for this season's former #1, Oklahoma. Oklahoma's 19-spot freefall is exactly why I chose to pick against them. After their last-second loss to Baylor (their second of the year), the Sooners essentially gave up on their BCS dreams and accepted a 44-10 whipping at the hands of Oklahoma State. Iowa, on the other hand, has been consistently middle-of-the-road; they haven't seen a national championship slip from their fingers like Oklahoma, so they have much more to play for.

Stay tuned for Part 2 of Blindside Blog's Bowl Picks, where Todd Graham is once again labeled a sleazeball.