Chalk Talk: How Oregon Blocks the Inside Zone

Much has been made of Oregon's ADHD-esque offense since Chip Kelly first arrived as offensive coordinator in 2007. The team's appearance in the national championship last season resulted in countless high schools and colleges attempting to mimic Kelly's breathless no-huddle playcalling. Now, everyone seems to be jumping on the Autzen bandwagon; Miami Heat Head Coach Erik Spoelstra made waves this offseason by flying his entire staff to Eugene to learn more about Kelly's philosophy (apparently LeBron will be running the zone read in South Beach this season).

After navigating a wave of recruiting allegations last summer, the Ducks still managed a potent offensive game this season. Oregon rushed for just shy of 300 yards per game (5th in the nation), and have scored 42.6 points per game (3rd in the nation). Most of the media and fan attention is focused on Kelly's talented skill players, but they aren't the only players who deserve the spotlight. Although weapons like Darron Thomas and LaMichael James make defensive gameplans near-impossible, Kelly himself admitted in his Nike Coach of the Year Clinic talk that "the five offensive linemen are the key to your football team." The reason Oregon's offensive linemen are so important is Kelly's heavy reliance on zone reads and options.

Here's a look at how Oregon's offensive line executes the inside zone:

The video used in making this post is courtesy of ESPN.

This is how Oregon's offensive line sees the defense. In the above picture, Oregon has an inside zone called to the left against Stanford's 4-2 defensive look. The offensive line has been told to account for 5 defenders. In Kelly's offense it's the center's job to "set the point," meaning he identifies the "0" defender. This player is the A-gap playside defender, which in this case is the noseguard in between the center and the playside guard. From this decision, the offensive line follows their blocking rules.

Since there are 6 defenders in the box, the #3 player to the right is the quarterback's man. He must be "blocked" by the quarterback's decision to hand off the ball or keep it; he is not truly "blocked" because the quarterback is too small to physically block a defensive lineman. Rather, if the quarterback can make the edge player respect him as a runner, he is doing his job. I won't go into the quarterback's job in too much detail here, because Chris Brown already did a great job of that over at Grantland.

Although the quarterback's decision is crucial to the play's success, the offensive line's work is by far the most important. Since the center's job is to block the "0" defender he identified, the rest of the offensive line works around his block.

The left guard is essentially responsible for the left-side linebacker, but it would be stupid to run straight at him and leave the center to deal with the nose by himself. This would affect the timing of the play, and the backer would most likely shed the guard's block before the running back even got there.

Instead, the offensive line works double teams in order to more effectively create running lanes. The left tackle will attempt to kick out the wide 5-technique to his left, and the other four linemen will double the remaining defensive linemen up to the inside linebackers.

Double-teams are one of the most drilled blocks in virtually any college program, because it takes work to learn it properly. Ideally the offensive linemen should be able to block butt-to-butt with synchronized footwork so that the defender cannot split them and wreak havoc in the backfield. Most of the time when you see a defensive lineman split a double team, it is due to a lack of synchronicity between the blockers rather than the d-lineman's amazing skills.

The double team is also practiced intensively because it requires two blockers to share the same vision. Although the o-linemen are working to drive a player backwards, their eyes are on the linebackers. If the block is executed perfectly they will be able to drive the d-lineman straight into the backer, but most of the time this does not happen. They will instead attempt to decide where the linebacker is flowing based on their block, and one of them will come off to block the backer.

The double teams are executed well on this play. The linemen make a unified six-inch step with their left foot at a 45-degree angle to the left, followed by the same directional step with their right foot. Once they reach the defender, they attempt to move him, or as Kelly describes it, "we want them handling the defender as if they were a bouncer in a bar throwing him out of the bar."

 You can see that the linemen are creating movement while watching the linebackers. The right guard is already on his way to the mike backer.

The quarterback chooses to keep the ball because the #3 defender stunts hard inside to tackle the running back. The right guard has made it to the mike backer, and the center is disengaging from his double team to block the will. The quarterback has a free running lane, but he would not be one-on-one with the safety if the offensive line's double teams were not executed properly. The offensive line does not particularly care where the ball goes; their blocking scheme is designed to adapt to where the defenders flow, and if the o-line adjusts properly, Oregon's skill players are given space to make plays.

Chalk Talk: Dion Jordan's Free Shot Sack

UCLA entered this year's Pac-12 Championship in dire straits; the team was coming off a 50-0 loss to USC, and had just been informed that Rick Neuheisel would be fired after the season. The Bruins practically admitted defeat before the game even started by filing paperwork with the NCAA that would allow them to play in a bowl game with a 6-7 record (which they expected to have after playing Oregon). Matters would only get worse after kickoff.

With 1:55 remaining in the first half and a 28-point deficit looming, Kevin Price lined up his offense in a trips formation with tight end Joseph Fauria slotted out to the right. Price looked to make a quick throw to his left, only to get smoked by an untouched Dion Jordan. Online discussions seemed centered on blaming the right tackle for such an egregious error in pass protection. However, Mike Harris was in the wrong here. If the blame for that sack should be placed on anyone, it should be on Price. Here's why:

The video used in making this post is courtesy of winesfamily.blogspot.com and Fox Sports.

Above is the diagram for the protection UCLA called on this play. Going into halftime against the Ducks with only a 14-point deficit would be a dream come true for most schools. It's 3rd & 6, so, the Bruins are looking to use their 3-step passing game to get a quick first down and keep driving into Oregon territory. Most 3-step protections call for the offensive line to slide one way or the other; this allows the unit to stay together and keep defenders from getting any run-through to knock down a pass.

The only problem is that Price is passing out of an empty set. Above is a spot that marks where the running back should be in order to use this slide protection. The running back's job (if he were in the formation) would have been to pick up Dion Jordan.

This is the blitz scheme Oregon has called. They only have one down lineman, which is typically referred to as a Psycho package. The rest of the stand-up defenders are assigned to cross the offensive line's faces in order to create pass rush lanes. The backer outside the left hash is designed to rush outside Jordan, but he won't get there in time because of the quick throw price will make.

With their protection call, the offensive line is accounting for the four left-most defenders in the box, and leaving Jordan one-on-one with what should be a tight end or running back. Unfortunately for UCLA, this formation doesn't have anyone to account for Jordan.

As you can see from the above view, Fauria is flexed out too far to block Jordan, so without a running back there is a free shot at the quarterback.

Price looks left immediately for one of his receivers to get open, which doesn't happen quickly enough for him to make the throw before Jordan gets there. At the bottom, you can see Fauria open with the safety coming down to cover him. If Price had thrown to Fauria immediately, it would have been an easy 4 or 5-yard gain.

Only UCLA players and coaches really know why this protection was called in an empty set, but I can offer a few theories:

1. If the o-line calls their own protections (as is common, especially in 2-minute situations), they might have called the slide left without knowing that they were in an empty formation.
2. Price didn't know which protection was called, so he didn't know that Jordan would be the hot defender (meaning that Jordan is unaccounted for, so Price would have to make a quicker throw).
3. Price did know which protection was called but didn't expect Jordan to blitz, or thought he would be able to make the throw before Jordan got to him.
4. Rick Neuheisel was on his way out and just wanted to watch his players suffer a little.

I'm going to assume that #4 isn't true, so my best guess is a combination of 1 and 2. It doesn't appear that Price knows Jordan is coming hot off the right side, so he takes at least part of the blame. The problem with running a 2-minute offense (especially when you're down a bunch of points) is that players get flustered while trying to run the plays quickly and efficiently. As a result, communication between the offensive line and the skill players often breaks down. Most likely, the offensive line didn't know the formation was empty and Price didn't know the o-line would be sliding left. 

These situations are exactly what Oregon intended to create by using a fast-paced offense and a complex blitz defense. Any time an All-Pac 12 defensive end comes unblocked, mayhem is the result. Look for Oregon to try and create similar panicked situations for Russell Wilson and Wisconsin's offense in the Rose Bowl.

Blind Side Blog's 2011 Bowl Picks, Part 2

The first few games of this year's bowl season were marked with some impressive showings (Boise State) and some last-second Cinderellas (Louisiana-Lafayette). More great matchups are on the way, with plenty of battles between excellent offensive and defensive line units. Here's the second half of BSB's bowl picks. The projected winner is in bold: 

Meineke Car Care Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6)

• Kevin Sumlin bolted from Houston to take the more prestigious post at SEC-bound A&M; unfortunately for the Aggies, Sumlin won't be able to help them against a streaky Northwestern team that has won four of their last 5 games. Ryan Tannehill has had an exceptional season at quarterback for TAMU, but it won't be enough to overcome the effects of a soul-crushing last-second loss to archrival Texas at the end of the season.

Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) vs. Utah Utes (7-5)

• Paul Johnson's triple option has been incredibly successful this year with over 316 rushing yards per game and nearly 35 points per game. Look for Tevin Washington to have a great day against Utah, who threw away a chance at the Pac-12 championship by losing their last game to Colorado.

Fight Hunger Bowl: Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) vs. UCLA Bruins (6-7)

• I proclaimed the Fight Hunger Bowl to be this year's "Turd Bowl" on Twitter. First, look at UCLA. In addition to firing Rick Neuheisel, the Bruins filed paperwork with the NCAA to make sure they could play in a bowl before the Pac-12 championship game, essentially anticipating a shellacking from Oregon. Illinois' Ron Zook, on the other hand, was fired after his team complimented a 6-0 start with a 0-6 finish. My choice is UCLA, because at least they have won a game since October 8th.

Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6)

• This could end up being a battle of excellent backs. Cincinnati boasts an electric running back with nearly 1500 total yards in Isaiah Pead, whereas Vandy's Zac Stacy has covered a similar amount of yardage en route to the Liberty Bowl. The Bearcats are still a sub-BCS team without Brian Kelly, whereas Commodores coach James Franklin's contract was torn up and rewritten after he tripled the team's victory count in each of the last two seasons. Vanderbilt is my choice here.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia Cavaliers (8-4) vs. Auburn Tigers (7-5)

• This was somewhat of a down year for Auburn after losing Cam Newton, but a 4-4 conference record is always impressive in the SEC. The Tigers had a very turbulent season, which included eight straight weeks of alternating wins and losses. Virginia posted a stronger home stretch barring a final week 38-0 loss at the hands of Virginia Tech. Although they aren't the best team in the Commonwealth, the Cavaliers still allow seven points less than Auburn per game, on average; defense will make the difference here.

TicketCity Bowl: No. 20 Houston Cougars vs. No. 24 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3)

• TicketCity was the first bowl willing to take the heat in choosing Penn State, but the only heat source in this game is Case Keenum's arm. Despite losing Kevin Sumlin, the Cougars are still 1st in the country for both scoring and passing offense. Penn State still has a long road to full recovery as a program and as a university, which will show against Houston.

Gator Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6) vs. Florida Gators (6-6)

• I prefer to call this the "Let's see how many times the broadcasters say Urban Meyer/Tim Tebow in one game" Bowl. Has a nice ring to it, right? All kidding aside, this appears to be an intriguing matchup between 2 recent powerhouses attempting to regain their footing. Florida has lost six of their last eight games after a promising 4-0 start in Will Muschamp's inaugural season, whereas Braxton Miller has rendered Ohio State's quarterback woes without Terrell Pryor short-lived. In my experience, coaching with a demeanor such as Muschamp's can wear on players, especially late in the season. I see Ohio State winning their last pre-Urban Meyer game.

Outback Bowl: No. 12 Michigan State Spartans (10-3) vs. No. 18 Georgia Bulldogs (10-3)

• This year, the Outback Bowl might have the best non-BCS matchup. Michigan State and Georgia have the exact same conference and overall records, as well as two of the top defenses in the nation (9th and 17th, respectively). It's difficult to decide whether an end-of-season close loss to a good team (Michigan State's 42-39 loss to Wisconsin) or a huge loss to a great team (Georgia's 42-10 loss to LSU) affects a team more. Ultimately, I've decided to go with Georgia here because to me, playing in the SEC is the ultimate tiebreaker in big games such as this one.

Capital One Bowl: No. 21 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) vs. No. 10 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2)

• This is a game I have circled on my calendar, as it's a very even matchup. The Gamecocks had a very impressive season with a close loss to Auburn and a 2-score loss to an explosive Arkansas team; their 10-2 effort earned Steve Spurrier a contract extension through 2015. The Huskers' inaugural Big 10 season was a success aside from spankings at the hands of Wisconsin and Michigan, but they have been using some innovative rushing schemes with Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead which should challenge South Carolina's stingy defense. I give this one to the Huskers because Bo Pelini is dangerous when he has time to prepare.

Rose Bowl: No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) vs. No. 6 Oregon Ducks (11-2)

• This game features two of the top five overall offenses, and both have a great running game. I've always been a huge believer in Chip Kelly's offense, and I think Oregon will be back in the national championship soon. However, Russell Wilson adds another dimension to the Montee Ball show for Wisconsin. The Badgers also have a significantly better defense than Oregon, and they have time to condition for the Duck's rapid-fire playcalling. 

Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Stanford Cardinal (11-1) vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1)

• This is by far the most exciting game on the schedule with two future NFL quarterbacks leading two of the nation's best offenses. It's also the toughest game to pick. In the end, although Andrew Luck is "pretty much perfect" according to Lane Kiffin, the Weeden-Blackmon combination should put Oklahoma State over the top.

Sugar Bowl: No. 13 Michigan Wolverines (10-2) vs. No. 17 Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2)

• There's a ton of uproar about this game, and I agree with the common sentiment that these teams don't deserve a BCS bowl. That being said, it's still a matchup worth watching. Two top-10 defenses are featured here, as well as one of the most exciting players to watch in Denard Robinson. Tech was demolished twice by Clemson this season, but the Hokies had an exceptional season otherwise and is looking to use this platform to cleanse the taste of Tiger droppings from their mouths. Although I'm impressed with Michigan's running game this season, Beamer ball will win out in the end.

Discover Orange Bowl: No. 23 West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) vs. No. 14 Clemson Tigers (10-3)

• Geno Smith has had a prolific year quarterbacking the Mountaineers, passing for nearly 4,000 yards and completing 65% of his passes. Clemson has an equally talented QB in Tajh Boyd, but the Tigers suffered a late-season collapse, losing three of their last five games. Overall, though, Clemson beat four of the five top-25 opponents they played this season whereas West Virginia only beat one. Clemson is the more talented team, and they have a bright future.

Cotton Bowl: No. 11 Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) vs. No. 7 Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2)

• Arkansas had an amazing post-Mallett season, with their only losses coming to the two teams who happen to be playing in the national championship. Kansas State isn't such a great team on paper. They have one of the worst passing offenses in the entire country (a paltry 149.8 yards per game). Most of their wins were by one score or less. But they also have the most underrated college football player in Collin Klein. The Wildcats have played underdog before, and they have much more to play for than the Razorbacks.

BBVA Compass Bowl: Southern Methodist Mustangs (7-5) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6)

• I simply cannot pick Pittsburgh here. They have a great on-field leader in Tino Sunseri, but the team has struggled since running back Ray Graham was injured. Above all, I cannot pick Pitt because of Todd Graham. The man texted his players to let them know he was bolting for Arizona State. I've been in a program where the head coach resigned, and there is a right way to do it. Sending out a mass text is not the right way. The Panthers have since hired Paul Chryst, but Chryst won't have enough time to properly install his schemes; the players also have to get over their extreme bitterness thanks to Graham.

GoDaddy.Com Bowl: Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3)

• Both teams have been on impressive hot streaks; NIU has won eight straight and Arkansas St. has won nine straight. The Huskies most notably came back from a 20-point halftime deficit to win the MAC championship. They also boast a talented dual-threat quarterback in Chandler Harnish, who passed for nearly 3,000 yards and ran for over 1,000. I picked against the Sun Belt already and it didn't work out too well, but I think Northern Illinois plays as a team better than the Red Wolves.

BCS Championship: No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) vs. No. 1 LSU Tigers (13-0)

• As a former offensive lineman, I like watching shootouts. If their regular-season matchup is any indication, this game will be incredibly boring. I became convinced of LSU's #1 status after they smoked Arkansas and Georgia at the end of the season. LSU will come out ahead, hopefully by scoring more than 9 points.

Understanding Illegal Stemming

In last night's New Orleans Bowl, Louisiana-Lafayette lined up for a potential 55-yard game-winning field goal with seconds left. It would be a career long for Brett Baer if he made it, but the field goal unit had been struggling all night long. Unable to convert on an earlier field goal and even an extra point, the Ragin' Cajuns seemed doomed.

Until a ref threw a flag for "Illegal Stemming," that is.

The UL-L field goal unit had earlier been called for a false start, but this time the penalty was on a San Diego State defensive lineman. As a former offensive lineman, I was amazed that the refs actually made the right call here; due to the internet's swarming with questions about the penalty this morning, I thought I would clarify.

"Stemming" is a commonly used term for offensive and defensive linemen to describe a d-lineman's pre-snap movement. Many defenses will attempt to disguise their front in order to confuse offensive linemen so that a defender comes through unblocked. 4-3 defenses are the most apt to do this, as they can't bring pressure from as many places as a 3-4; therefore, they need to create confusion in another way.

Let's say for example we have a base 4-3 with a strong-side 5-technique (on the tackle's outside shoulder) and 3-technique (guard's outside shoulder), and a weak 1-technique (center's backside shoulder) and 5-technique (tackle's backside shoulder). If the offense has an inside zone run called, the quarterback might initially see this front and audible to the other side, because the 1-tech and 5-tech have more space between them for a running lane.

After his audible, the quarterback begins his cadence. At the last second, the 3-tech and 1-tech stem; the strong 3 comes down to a strong 1, and the weak 1 moves to a weak 3. The defensive front has now baited the offense into running away from the formation's strong side. It's a small victory, but small games like this on the offensive and defensive line are often crucial to the game's outcome. Stemming is completely different from stunting, but we'll save that topic for another time.

Stemming is a perfectly legal part of football because the defensive linemen are moving sideways before the snap. "Illegal Stemming," however, is when a defensive lineman moves with the express purpose of causing the offensive lineman to false start. That's exactly what the Aztec d-lineman was doing before Baer's 55-yard attempt; rather than trying to get into a different position, he kept flinching like he saw the ball being snapped. This caused the right tackle to flinch, but San Diego State got hit with the 5-yard move. Then this happened:

I'm still amazed that the referee called illegal stemming, because as 99% of the time the offensive lineman gets called for that even though it's the defense's fault. Plenty of coaches might say that the lineman should have been able to hold his water with the defense flinching like that even if it meant coming off the ball a hair slower; however, with a game-winning kick on the line after having a kick blocked earlier, every fraction of a second counts.

This is a penalty that has been called much more often in the last two years, and I'm glad that's the case. For too long offensive linemen have had the burden of remaining perfectly still while defensive linemen have a bag full of tricks to lure them into false starting. I'm glad the kick got moved forward here, and I'm glad Baer made it (even though I picked SDSU). Why, you ask?

A victory for one offensive lineman is a victory for all.

Blind Side Blog's 2011 Bowl Picks, Part 1

Once a year, the stars align to produce the most glorious combination of events. Final exams at my college conclude, and bowl season begins in earnest. Although BCS hatred is now at reverse Bieber-fever levels, to me there's nothing more exciting than watching two mediocre teams square off in front of a quarter-capacity crowd in Albuquerque. Sarcasm aside, I really do enjoy bowl season, as it gives me a chance to watch teams I otherwise don't get to see much. And to celebrate the most wonderful time of the year, I attempt clairvoyance. Picks are in bold. Enjoy:

New Mexico Bowl: Temple Owls (8-4) vs.Wyoming Cowboys (8-4)

• The Cowboys boast an impressive strength of schedule, with losses only coming to (then #9) Nebraska, Utah State, #16 TCU, and (then #7) Boise State. However, Temple's rushing attack ranks #7 in the nation with 256.7 yards per game on the ground. The Owls are also third in the nation in scoring defense with a stingy 13.8 points per game allowed. If defense wins championships, it can certainly win you the New Mexico Bowl.

Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio Bobcats (9-4) vs. Utah State Aggies (7-5)

• After a rocky 2-5 start, Utah State has finished impressively strong. Robert Turbin has led a ground game that ranks sixth in the nation, as the Aggies have compiled 277.5 rushing yards per game. What I like most about this team is Head Coach Gary Andersen, who has his players on board after making good on his promise that he would get a Utah State tattoo if the Aggies made it to a bowl this season.

New Orleans Bowl: San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (8-4)

• San Diego State is looking towards a bright future in the Big East, whereas Louisiana-Lafayette's season ended on a sour two-loss note as they remain stuck in the Sun Belt. San Diego State notched their first postseason win since 1969 last year, beating Navy in the Poinsetta Bowl. On the other hand, this is LA-Lafayette's first FBS postseason game.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl: Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4) vs.Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6)

• In picking this bowl, I first had to get over the fact that it has one of the most ridiculous names of all time. After that, I didn't decide who was more impressive so much as which team was less unimpressive. In this case, Florida International is the better choice. They have a pretty solid defense (16th in the nation), which should make Marshall Freshman QB Rakeem Cato's day relatively miserable.

Poinsettia Bowl: No. 16 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (10-2) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4)

• La. Tech finished out their season well by beating some relatively solid WAC teams, but TCU is still (to a somewhat lesser extent) the TCU powerhouse from days of yore. The question is how the Horned Frogs will respond to being placed in a lower bowl after winning the Rose Bowl last year. Without their overtime loss to SMU early in the season, they end up with a significantly higher ranking. Regardless, Coach Gary Patterson should be able to cajole his team into beating a lesser La. Tech squad.

MAACO Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) vs. No. 8 Boise State Broncos (11-1)

• This one isn't very fair. Arizona State is in between coaches, so the only conceivable motivation for most of the underclassman players is to play well so that Todd Graham will have them as a starter at the beginning of spring ball. Boise State might struggle with motivation heading into such a meaningless game, considering that they could have been in the national championship this year were it not for another spectacular kicking failure. That being said, the Broncos are #8 in the nation for a reason, and that reason has passed for over 3500 yards this year. Kellen Moore and co. should have no problem dispatching Arizona State.

Hawaii Bowl: Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) vs. No. 22 Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-2)

• I'm a huge fan of Nevada's pistol offense (I played for 2 years on a team that ran it), but I'm an even bigger fan of the way Southern Miss dismantled Houston in the C-USA championship game. Nevada is not the same without Colin Kaepernick, whereas Southern Miss has an excellent quarterback in Austin Davis. And although Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora is leaving for North Carolina, the Golden Eagles still have plenty of talent to win this game.

Independence Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) vs. Missouri Tigers (7-5)

• North Carolina struggled through a turbulent season embroiled with NCAA investigations and the firing of Butch Davis. Everett Withers has done an admirable job as the interim coach, but his temporary Tar Heels will have an uphill battle against the SEC-bound Tigers.

Little Caesars Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (6-6)

• I decided to go with Western Michigan here because of Alex Carder's impressive season at quarterback. He passed for just under 3500 yards, leading a team scoring effort that finished the season ranked 18th in the country. This offense looks like too much for Purdue to handle, as the Boilermakers have suffered several humiliating blowouts this season.

Belk Bowl: Louisville Cardinals (7-5) vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-5)

• Louisville overcame a brutal 2-4 start to become bowl-eligible and clinch a share of the Big East Title, which resulted in a contract extension for coach Charlie Strong. I like to see program stability when picking bowls, because it indicates a positive atmosphere where players feel like they are building something special. Although I was impressed with N.C. State's thrashing of Clemson in November, I think Louisville has more to win here.

Military Bowl: Toledo Rockets (8-4) vs. Air Force Falcons (7-5)

• Although Toledo has lived up to its nickname with a rocket-like 42.3 points scored per game, their potent offense will be forced to sit on the bench more than they would like. Air Force has become downright clinical at the triple option, which is designed to eat clock and yards to combat teams with Toledo's firepower. Air Force is second in the country in rushing yards with an astounding 320.3 yards per game, and it's mostly dues to Tim Jefferson Jr.'s ability to run the offense. Look for the Falcons to keep Toledo's explosive receiver Eric Page on the sideline while wearing down the Rockets' defense.

Holiday Bowl: California Golden Bears (7-5) vs. Texas Longhorns (7-5)

• This game might be the most even matchup of all the non-BCS bowls, and as a result I'm going with Texas simply because of the Mack Brown factor. The man has coached in 18 bowl games in his career and won the majority of them, so he should be able to pull out yet another Holiday Bowl win in what has been a down year for the Longhorns.

Champs Sports Bowl: No. 25 Florida State Seminoles (8-4) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4)

• Notre Dame won an impressive eight games in Brian Kelly's second season, but the team is unsure of its future quarterback situation after benching Tommy Rees in an end-of-season 28-14 loss to Stanford. Rees will start against a Florida State team that failed to live up to high-ranking hype at the season's start. Overall, Florida State edges out in my mind because playing in Orlando is essentially home-court advantage for the 'Noles.

Alamo Bowl: Washington Huskies (7-5) vs. No. 15 Baylor Bears (9-3)

• RGIII and the Bears essentially play on home turf against a Huskies team whose fan base doesn't travel too well. 'Nuff said.

Armed Forces Bowl: Brigham Young Cougars (9-3) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4)

• Although I'm somewhat disappointed that no service academies are playing in the Armed Forces Bowl, the matchup is still intriguing. BYU comes off a predictably solid season, losing only to Texas, Utah, and TCU with no statistical superstars. Tulsa is my choice, though; I was very impressed with G.J. Kinne and his Golden Hurricane teammates' strong early showing against Houston. Tulsa was down only three points at halftime to the Cougars before Case Keenum's offense went off for 35 second-half points. Tulsa appears to be on the rise, which I consider an advantage in lower-level bowls.

Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4)

• If I've learned anything the last three years going to school in Iowa, I've learned that when the Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes it will be a good year. Iowa State's season was nothing less than a dogfight, but they also ended up going David on Oklahoma State; they also played Oklahoma and Kansas State quite close. Rutgers has a good defense and a venue advantage playing in New York, but after what I've seen this year from the 'Clones I just cannot pick against them.

Music City Bowl: Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6)

• After Wake Forest started the season 4-2, they seemed to be a possible darkhorse for the ACC Champions. Until they went 2-4 in the last six games, that is. Mississippi State only won two SEC games this year, but it's still the SEC. They also played most of their losses close, boasting the 19th-ranked defense in the nation. This matchup is somewhat of a push, and strength of conference tips the scale in the Bulldogs' favor.

Insight Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) vs.No. 19 Oklahoma Sooners (9-3)

• The Insight Bowl was notable this year as one of the bowls to publicly pass on Penn State, instead opting for this season's former #1, Oklahoma. Oklahoma's 19-spot freefall is exactly why I chose to pick against them. After their last-second loss to Baylor (their second of the year), the Sooners essentially gave up on their BCS dreams and accepted a 44-10 whipping at the hands of Oklahoma State. Iowa, on the other hand, has been consistently middle-of-the-road; they haven't seen a national championship slip from their fingers like Oklahoma, so they have much more to play for.

Stay tuned for Part 2 of Blindside Blog's Bowl Picks, where Todd Graham is once again labeled a sleazeball.